BoJ’s Koeda: Core inflation is already near 2%
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Board Member Junko Koeda said on Thursday that Japan's core inflation rate has approached 2%. Koeda also highlighted the progress towards achieving the BoJ's inflation goal, which has been a key focus for policymakers in recent years.
Key quotes
Underlying inflation is already around 2%.
BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions.
Developments over the past month or two may have increased the likelihood of a risk scenario in which high crude oil prices persist.
Considering such supply and demand contexts, prices could continue to increase across a wider range of items down the road.
Given the situation in the Middle East, I see some possibility that underlying inflation may exceed 2% looking ahead.
Both survey- and market-based indicators of long-term inflation expectations have already increased slightly, which warrants attention.
It is reasonable for boj to raise the policy interest rate at an appropriate pace to address high inflation while also considering the trade-offs for the economy.
BoJ needs to continue examining the extent to which underlying inflation is anchored.
If real interest rates continue to deviate markedly in a negative direction from the natural rate of interest, unintended distortions could arise in future resource allocation.
Short-term real interest rates will fall further if the BoJ does not change its policy interest rate in response to a rise in inflation or inflation expectations.
BoJ's decision on how to address issues surrounding policy normalization will depend on factors such as the size of the output gap and the stability of the natural rate of interest.
If economy does not see a major downturn, more attention needs to be paid to the side effects of a further decline in real interest rates.
BoJ should proceed steadily with normalizing its balance sheet in a predictable manner, while ensuring flexibility.
BoJ's JGB holdings are expected to decline moderately, as the amount of bonds redeemed exceeds the amount purchased.
When considering long-term balance between redemption and purchase, important to comprehensively assess factors such as the situation in the jgb market and issue of liquidity, including reserve balances.
BoJ must assess how long present situation in the Middle East will last, its impact on global economy and external demand and how Japan's net exports will change in light of current FX levels.
Pace of price pass-through by firms seems to have accelerated compared with a few years ago.
Services prices, which had been declining until a few years ago, have recently been stably pushing up CPI due to sustained SOLID wage growth.
Short-term real interest rates have been negative and at low levels relative to other economies.
Prolonged period of negative long-term real interest rates may lead investors to view Japan's economy as an unattractive investment It is therefore desirable for real long-term interest rates to remain positive over the long run to maintain market health.
Some market players say market perception of fiscal policy has influenced formation of JGB yields.
Market reaction
At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.03% on the day to trade at 158.88.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.